Inflation numbers ticked back up (PCE for July) and the consensus is that "sticky" inflation will be around for awhile. This would make it hard to return to the zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) that has been dominant since the GFC.
Read More
The market apparently rallied strongly yesterday on a DECLINE in Job Openings. Temporary workers are being let go, average hours worked are declining, and similar "bad news" items appear to be celebrated by trading algorithms.
Read More
We hear "correlation does not imply causation" quite a bit in the investment world. It means we can't really know for sure there is a definitely cause-and-effect relationship between two variables based on the observed correlation between them.
Read More
Mtv was one of the early pioneers in reality TV with a show called the Real World. At the time, it was kinda fascinating because you felt like a fly on the wall watching these people's lives happen. Now it's all staged. Actually, probably was then too but maybe because it was new, it didn't seem like it.
Read More
My girlfriend and I are talking about "next steps" after 5 years of dating 🥰 and a new house is somewhere on the horizon. But that wonderful personal life excitement is dampened by the current status of the housing market.
Read More
Over the years, I have done a number of personality tests, starting with the Myers-Briggs in college. It was scary accurate. And follow-up assessments have been equally accurate and telling. "Know thyself" my friends 👍
Read More
There is a saying in the investment world that "being early is wrong". I'm not saying you don't need to adjust, because of course you need to "adapt". 🙂 What I'm referring to specifically is the immediate gratification mentality our society is so stricken by and judging something to be wrong even just because it hasn't happened yet.
Read More
Analyst are have been raising price targets for 2H 2023 and expect earnings to go higher. This is interesting given the lag effects of rate hikes, exhaustion of excess household savings, and student loan repayment starting back up. However, this is a plausible scenario so let's consider it.
Read More
I was mulling over the recent strength of the rally and where we could be going over the next 6-12 months this morning and I landed on earnings.
Read More
I rarely take any time off, but last week I ventured down to a nearby lake with my sweetheart. One night we ate dinner at the marina and took a stroll on the dock. I noticed a new wakeboard/wake surf boat that looked similar to the one I bought back in 2001. I was really into wakeboarding for about 6-7 years and spent a lot of time on the water. Super fun days that I really miss.
Read More
The sudden AI craze is interesting to me as the premise is we will have a transformational boom in productivity in the future. That's actually probably a fair statement. We've already seen how robotics has transformed manufacturing and machinery has transformed road construction, just to name a few examples. 🚜
Read More
Markets have been melting up since October on the narrative the Fed is done with interest rate hikes and would cut rates in 2H of 2023. This narrative was held on to tightly even though Powell and his crew repeatedly emphasized hikes would continue until inflation was close to their target of 2%.
Read More
An "echo" bubble is a secondary, typically smaller, bubble-esque rally AFTER a market bubble has started to collapse. This may be nuances in the symantics of terms, but important in distinction.
Read More
Everyone has been pretty surprised by how well the consumer is holding up. Myself, and plenty of peers, thought we would be in the throws of recession by now. And yet, earnings has held up better than expected and some analysts are even increasing forecasts.
Read More
In my opinion, the Golden Rule is an example of something that taps into being universal and timeless. "Universal Truths" extend beyond periods and circumstances. Yet they are not perfect, exceptions can happen. But such anamolies are indeed exceptions to the rule.
Read More