AdaptFirst Investments is a home for people who need guidance on their investments (Direct Clients) and for financial advisors looking for investment research and management support (OCIO Service).
Our firm focuses on objective and comprehensive research in making investment decisions and navigating market trends.
So if you need help directly with your personal investments, OR, if you need help managing other people’s assets, we would appreciate the opportunity to be a resource for you!
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It's March Madness and brackets have really been blowing up. This is actually one of the first years I haven't even filled out a bracket, too much work to do. But in watching some games last weekend, I started thinking about "luck". Then I drove by a billboard showing one of the lotteries was over $1 Billion. (I saw on the Terminal this morning someone in NJ won it) 🍀
Read MoreA few years ago, I saw an interview with Michael Kantrowitz, CFA regarding his "H.O.P.E." framework. Basically, it's a model that outlines the road signs to recession.
H- Housing peaks -> O- Orders peak -> P-Profits peak -> E-Employment peaks
Read MoreOne of the things that has pushed the recession out farther than many of us has expected is the unusual strength of the consumer. Covid stimulus rained free money. So higher consumption is not that unusual in times of economic distress, but it comes to offset other declines, which unlike history, were never really priced in.
Read MoreThe recent jobs report was pretty hot on the surface. The median estimate was 185,000 and the "Actual" number came in WAY HIGHER at 353,000. The highest estimate was 300,000. (lowest was 120,000) How is it possible the miss was so large?
Read MoreThe recent break of the 2022 high is hot on the newswires. And indeed it is a pretty big technical sign. After all, breaking through a significant "resistance" level can be a sign something has changed.
Read MoreAccording to the Fed Reserve Bank of San Francisco that gigantic sugar boost, or maybe cocaine rush?, is pretty much done. So it will be critical to see if YOLO spending will continue, especially when "buy now, pay later" is so popular.
Read MoreIt’s the last week of the year, and if you’re old like me (or getting older), it’s become a time of reflection. I look at my daughter getting older (she’s 10 going on 16). I look at my beard getting greyer. I study the past. I think about the future. And I think about what we know and what we don’t know, what has happened and what could happen.
Read MoreSo we are all getting inundated with market predictions for next year. I'm comparing my own research to the various reports and weighing the alternative views.
Read MoreOne of the main difficulties in navigating financial markets is that significant influential factors don't necessarily happen that often. The closest thing to Covid was the Spanish Flu of 1918. Financial markets were quite different back then, and that's only one "similar" instance which was more than 100 years ago.
Read MoreInvestors have celebrated an odd development - rising unemployment. The economy has been resilient throughout the year as excess household spending from Covid stimulus has allowed consumer spending to stay strong to date.
Read MoreUnless you are in the business, you have difficulty understanding what's "normal" and what's "not normal". And with investing, those ranges can be rather wide. This chart does a pretty good job of showing one way we are in the Investing Twilight Zone.
Read MoreMoney can actually buy you "time". See, we have a limited amount of time. And we don't know how much of that limited time we have. There are only so many hours in the day, and we don't know when our final hour might be.
Read MoreI saw an article recently on this, and it was pretty interesting. The issue basically comes down to "dreams" clashing with reality. In our minds, dreams are perfect. It's all sunshine, rainbows, and unicorns. The reality is not so perfect, but it usually takes a costly purchase to realize it.
Read MoreThe classic 60/40 portfolio which has become a staple for investing over the last 50 years is getting some pushback. The bond market has been in a bull market since the early 1980s, and maybe we are at the end of an era, that is interest rates will indeed be "higher for longer".
Read MoreThe fall season is likely to bring some headwinds for the consumer. Several estimates suggest "excess household savings" from Covid stimulus appears to be exhausted. And the lifting of the moratorium on student loan payments could add additional pressure on consumer budgets.
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